Influenced by Li-ion battery expansion,
product upgrading and equipment replacement, the market of Li-ion battery
equipment exploded in 2014 in China and reached around USD1.1 billion in 2015,
up 97% YoY. It is predicted that the growth space for Li-ion battery equipment market
will reach about USD9 billion in China in 2020, according to analyst CCM.
Source: Internet
In this round of Li-ion battery equipment
development, the increasing demand of Li-ion battery was brought by the rapid
development of alternative energy vehicles in China. In 2020, the total
electricity consumed by alternative energy vehicles will be as 10 times as what
it is now.
According to the Development Plan on Energy Saving and Alternative Energy Vehicle Industry
(2012-2020), the ownership of alternative energy vehicles will reach 5
million in 2020 and analyst CCM predicts that the sales of alternative energy vehicles
will reach over 2 million in 2020.
With the development of technology in
producing Li-ion battery, the capacity of Li-ion battery will also keep
expanding.
Prediction on sales volume of alternative
energy vehicles and demand of Li-ion battery in China, 2016-2020
|
|
|
2016E
|
2017E
|
2018E
|
2019E
|
2020E
|
|
Commercial vehicle & Special vehicle
|
Number of vehicles (Unit: 10 thousand)
|
20
|
27
|
35
|
40
|
45
|
|
Consumption of Li-ion battery
(Kwh/vehicle)
|
98
|
105
|
114
|
120
|
125
|
|
Demand of Li-ion battery (Gwh)
|
19.6
|
28.35
|
39.9
|
48
|
56.25
|
|
Passenger car
|
Number of car (Unit: 10 thousand)
|
50
|
80
|
115
|
|
|
|
Consumption of Li-ion battery
(Kwh/vehicle)
|
20
|
24
|
30
|
40
|
45
|
|
Demand of Li-ion battery (Gwh)
|
10
|
19.2
|
34.5
|
58
|
69.75
|
|
Total demand of Li-ion battery
|
Total demand (Gwh)
|
29.6
|
47.55
|
74.4
|
106
|
126
|
|
Demand increment (Gwh)
|
11.61
|
17.95
|
26.85
|
31.6
|
20
|
|
Growth of demand
|
65%
|
61%
|
56%
|
42%
|
19%
|
Note:E=Estimated
Source: CCM
Based on the expansion plans of 10 power Li-ion
battery enterprises including BYD Company Limited, China Aviation Lithium
Battery Co., Ltd., Hefei Guoxuan High-tech Power Energy Co., Ltd., Do-Fluoride
Chemicals Co. and Dynavolt Renewable Energy Technology Co., Ltd., according to CCM's calculation, it can be estimated
that USD129.8 million will be invested averagely on 1Gwh of power Li-ion
battery production equipment, and the investment on equipment with high
automation will account for about 50%-60% of the total investment.
Considering that major power Li-ion battery
enterprises will be the lead of the capacity expansion and the cost technology
is decreasing, it is predicted that about USD59 million will be invested on the
newly constructed 1Gwh power Li-ion battery production equipment every year.
That's to say, the new investment in 2016-2020 on production equipment for
power Li-ion battery will reach USD692 million, USD1.07 billion, USD1.602
billion, USD1.88 billion and USD1.19 billion.
Demand on consumer electronics Li-ion
battery also increases steadily. The shipment of consumer electronics Li-ion
battery was 28.4Gwh in China in 2015. If calculated based on the capacity
growth of 4%, 1.2Gwh capacity of consumer electronics Li-ion battery will
increase every year. And calculated based on 5 years battery life of consumer
electronics Li-ion battery, the capacity of 6Gwh will be used to produce new ones.
Compared to power Li-ion battery, consumer
electronics Li-ion battery is more standardized in producing, cheaper and with
lower technique. If USD44.7 million is invested in production equipment per Gwh,
USD322.3 million will be invested on new production equipment of consumer
electronics Li-ion battery every year.
The development of energy storage Li-ion
battery is mainly driven by the support from the Chinese government,
improvement in cost effective and progress on storage technology. It is
predicted that the annual growth of energy storage Li-ion battery will be 60%,
with the new capacity of 1Gwh, 1.6Gwh, 2.6Gwh, 4.2Gwh and 6.7Gwh in 2016-2020
respectively.
If the investment on per Gwh production
equipment is the same as that of power Li-ion battery, the investment on new production
equipment for energy storage Li-ion battery will be USD59 million, USD95
million, USD155 million, USD250 million and USD399 million.
Increment
of investment on Li-ion battery equipment in 2016-2020 (Unit: USD billion)
Source: CCM
That is to say, in 2016-2020, the growth
space for Li-ion battery market will reach about USD9 billion in total;
specifically, the equipment for power Li-ion battery will be USD6.4 billion,
consumer electronics Li-ion battery, USD1.6 billion; energy storage Li-ion
battery, USD969 million.
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about Li-ion battery in China, you can enter our Online Platform for it. It
mainly concludes:
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